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Archive for February, 2010


Security concerns spread as Chile quake death toll rises

This is a common occurrence after a national tragedy, or at least it is now common between the Chileans and the Haitians.  After the tragic quake, the Haitians looted everything, just as what is happening in Concepcion.  The difference between the two countries is that Chile is substantially developed in comparison (which is my assumption).  Why the similarities in the behavior?  Is it the decrease in the risk aversion from the looterees?  Is it a change in the sustainability of livelihood?  Is it the lack of efficiency from the law enforcement?

When we were discussing book one of the Harsh Moon, we were asked what would happen if our class was the last known population on earth.  I am rethinking that conversation after looking at the recent events.  In my opinion, sustainability or survival would become the forefront of our everyday actions.  Looking at difficulty of the livelihood in Chile, I can in a very very roundabout way, condone the actions geared toward nothing but survival (ie food and shelter).  But the stealing of luxuries is not what I would call justified.  Is it occuring because of short-term opportunity cost of no punishment?  The difference between our class discussion and what is happening in Chile is that when the power is restored, the new stereo will sound awfully good.  Is the day that the stereo sings worth the violation of the current laws?

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/02/28/chile.quake/index.html?hpt=T1

Olympic Investment

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/Olympics+bring+lasting+economic+benefits/2596129/story.html

The Vancouver Olympics have been full of disappointment for a lot of athletes who didn’t achieve the goals that they had just a few weeks ago.  Canada set a high goal win the most medals of any country as it hosts the Olympic games and made a big investment into a program they called “Own the Podium.”  This program didn’t pan out the way that they had hoped, but the bigger disappointment may be the economic fallout of the games.

One argument that is given in support of hosting the games is that the exposure will lead to an increase in tourism.  During the few weeks before, during, and after the Olympics there will definitely be winners in the hotel and restaurant industries but what about the long run?  Will the investment put in to host the Olympics actually be recovered?

Canada fell on some hard luck as it tried to showcase the snow covered mountains that would be the big allure to increasing tourism in British Columbia- there wasn’t any snow.  In order to have enough snow to build the courses and features for the events the organizers had to truck in snow.  Hardly the kind of impression you want to make when you need tourists to come to ski in order to recoup the investment.  In addition, destination ski vacationing is expected by many to decrease as transportation costs rise.  Those that would make the trip probably already know about the Whistler mountains in British Columbia.

Canadians are known for being friendly, but are they really kind enough to foot the bill for a global party in their own house?  Hosting the Olympics is a great “feel good” policy move for politicians of prospective host countries, but they shouldn’t expect to see much in the way of actual economic benefits coming to their economies.  At least they get to look good as they sit on the stands during the opening and closing ceremonies.  Who can put a value on that kind of political equity?

Plea Bargains and Prisoner’s Dilemmas

Here is a link to a very interesting paper on plea bargains and prisoner’s dilemmas by Oren Bar-Gill of NYU School of Law and Omri Ben-Shahar of the University of Chicago Law School.  The article outlines how and why plea bargains work and argues against the view that plea bargains improve the well-being of defendants.  They conclude (among other things) while ”[f]or the individual defendant a plea bargain represents increased choice [...] the availability of plea bargains might well be the factor that makes the trial option viable in the first place. Without plea bargains, many defendants would not face the risk of trial—they might not be charged at all. Defendants are charged, and are threatened with trials, only because the prosecutor expects to plea; they would not have been charged otherwise. [...] The prosecutor is able to extract harsh plea bargains from many defendants, we suggested, because defendants cannot coordinate their resistance to the prosecutor’s strategy.  The credibility of the prosecutor’s threat is based on the defendants’ collective action problem [and] while plea bargaining benefits the individual defendant, it is not at all clear that it benefits defendants as a group.” Thus, as Friedman observed in Law’s Order, plea bargaining is a good example of a prisoner’s dilemma, and it may be used by prosecutors to produce a positive result for society (i.e. convicting more criminals).

Another aspect of the paper that I found to be particularly interesting was the discussion of a parallel prisoner’s dilemma that exists in some civil cases.  According to Bar-Gill and Ben-Shahar, ”[t]he collective action problem of the plea bargaining defendants in criminal law has a similar strategic structure to another common litigation scenario: the one-against-many litigation phenomenon in civil cases [...] [or] situations in which one party has independent and non-joinable disputes with a multitude of counterparties, each operating separately, each potentially reaching a different trial outcome, and each subject to separate settlement bargaining.”  They observe that “like the prosecutor in criminal law, the civil party who faces many opponents cannot credibly threaten to take all of them, or even a substantial sub set of them, to trial. Even the mighty insurance companies (as defendants) or the music industry who owns infringed copyrighted materials (as a plaintiff) cannot litigate more than a small fraction of the disputes, and any threat to pursue more cases through litigation would be recognized as a bluff. A party in this situation can only hope to vindicate its legal position through settlements.”

The example used by Bar-Gill and Ben-Shahar is the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of America). They maintain that “[t]he music industry’s recent strategy of filing infringements suits against file sharing users illustrates this approach. Even the mighty RIAA cannot afford to sue all infringers—there are many millions of them. Absent a credible threat to sue, the RIAA seemed to be helpless in deterring copyright infringements. It then turned to a strategy of threatening to sue (and in fact filing complaints) against relatively small subsets of infringers, in separate waves. Recognizing the credibility of the RIAA’s threat to pursue these less numerous claims all the way to judgment, many defendants surrendered and settled.  The fear of more waves of suits to come (and in fact coming) is now significantly more substantial, serving the interest of the RIAA in deterring infringements.  The RIAA’s strategy is acknowledged by users and infringers, as well as persons supporting the file-sharing movement, to be intimidating. What makes it so intimidating is that those who are sued do not have an interest in mounting any meaningful defense and prefer to surrender to any settlement demanded by the RIAA. Like the criminal defendant, if you are picked to be tried, you might as well settle and avoid much greater risk. And like criminal defendants as a “class,” if only the copyright defendants were able to stonewall—it they could collectively commit to litigate their defenses all the way through trial—the RIAA’s litigation strategy would fail. True, those few defendants who stand at the frontline bear a greater cost. But by depleting the RIAA’s litigation resources, they effectively shield the remaining infringers from suit. Ex ante, infringers are better off if a few thousand of them incur a greater cost whereas the remaining millions are unscathed. Copyright defendants, however, find it difficult to come together and stonewall as a group. Thus, the plaintiff’s ‘divide and conquer’ strategy can succeed, manipulating the defendants’ collective action problem. It is this problem that leads some commentators to propose a mechanism of ‘class defense,’ whereby defendants can coordinate to form a uniform front.”

The RIAA is therefore able to create a prisoner’s dilemma among the copyright infringement defendants, and as long as the collective action problem remains, the strategy will produce results.  But is this the best way to solve the problem?  Or is there even a viable solution?  It would seem that the RIAA’s litigation resources are being used more efficiently in this manner than if they were to attempt the impossible and seek out and prosecute every individual who infringed copyright laws.  But how much of a difference does this strategy really make?  Is this a case in which the cost of allocating additional resources to prosecute offenders is greater than the cost to society of those infringing upon copyrights?  Finally, do copyright infringers really need the additional protection of “class defense”?

What Happens to Junkies?

Here is an interesting graph I saw the other day on digg.com. I suppose some would call it the cost of freedom; I think it would be more accurately described the cost of an empire. Either way, it’s gosh darned expensive. Looking at this chart makes me wonder why our “freedom” cost so much more than all the other countries on the chart which are as free as we are in many ways. What is all that money buying? What do we have to show for it? It’s no secret that the United States is a credit junkie. We always hear that China retains most of our treasury securities (which is true), but did you know that we owe a lot of other countries big bucks too. We owe Japan nearly as much as China. Where is this all going to lead? You don’t have to look too far back in history to find out. Thomas R. Eddlem is a freelance writer who contributes to LewRockwell.com, The New American, and AntiWar.com wrote an article last year with an interesting position. Not too different from what currently happens to people here who can’t pay their debt; I think it’s time America has a few of their credit cards cancelled. What do you think? Obama talked about a spending freeze in the State of the Union Address and said that starting in 2011 there will be a “freeze” in discretionary spending and that wasteful programs would be cut. What he didn’t say is that discretionary spending constitutes an infinitesimal portion of our national budget. Even the pork isn’t considered waste because it’s all neatly tucked away inside some unrelated bill or program that qualifies as not discretionary. (And what exactly constitutes a wasteful program?) Our readings and discussion of Friedman tie directly into this as well.

In light of the winter olympics

There is an article in slate that discussed in tryying to make the olympics judges more honest it may have produced the opposite effect. I think this could be an example of moral hazard backfired since the olympic commision is trying to curb judges in figure skating from giving a higher score to their home country now make it more difficult to find out who is being corrupt. He finds that the home-country bias gets even worse when anonymous judges can hide from a scrutinizing press and public, despite the barriers that anonymity may create for effective backroom deal-making. The home-judge advantage under the new system is about 20 percent higher than in the days of full disclosure. The olympic commitee in trying to capture more of the olympic spirit is creating moral hazard as a bug and allowing for more scandal to probably come about. here is the link to the article http://www.slate.com/id/2244277/

Midterm grades are up on Blackboard

I will hand the tests back on Tuesday, just in time to start grading the next set of papers.

Friedman says, “put the incentive where it does the most good.”

This is a great example of Friedman’s idea, “…put the incentive where it does the most good”.  The policy capitalizes on adverse selection and is incentive based with the end goal that companies offer better packages and increased wages to their employees without increasing the national deficit. According to the article, “Because nearly one in four workers is employed by companies that have contracts with the federal government, administration officials see the plan as a way to shape social policy and lift more families into the middle class. It would affect contracts like those awarded to make Army uniforms, clean federal buildings, and mow lawns at military bases.”

Moreover, the article stated, “Critics also said the policy would put small businesses, many of which do not provide rich benefits, at a disadvantage. Furthermore, government officials would find it difficult to evaluate bidders using the new criteria and to determine whether one company’s compensation package should give it an edge, said Alan L. Chvotkin, executive vice president of the Professional Services Council, a coalition of 340 government contractors.”

The critic’s comments are truly interesting because small businesses can sub-contract.  This policy makes contractors accountable for their products.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awst/2010/02/22/AW_02_22_2010_p26-205165.xml&headline=Pentagon%20Complains%20About%20Contractor%20Quality

Some positive externalities would be the transfer of wealth from executive bonuses to increased wages for the laborer, essentially removing the laborer from the state’s budgets, who distributes food stamps and Medicare to poor people.  This will increase the individual’s disposable income and purchasing power.  Whereas one person or group have the majority of money (executives) to purchase specialty/luxury goods; now more people with various preferences will make purchases from small and large businesses.

In addition, it forces ingenuity because those companies who desire government contracts (consumer) will minimize waste to keep prices low and improve quality to ensure repeat business; thus, eliminating moral hazard and increasing societal benefits. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/26/business/26procure.html?partner=rss…

The Effects of the Stimulus

I read this article in the Wall Street Journal today by Robert Barro. In the article he explains the future effect the stimulus will have on the GDP. He claims that the stimulus increased government spending $300 billion in 2009 and 2010. He claims that in these two years the government spending will add $120 billion more than had there been no stimulus in 2009 and $180 billion in 2010. This seems like a good deal, but all the spending is deficit spending and we will eventually have to be taxed for the money spent. We will be taxed $300 billion in 2012 and 2013. The exact years don’t matter, but it will happen. He predicts that each year of taxing will lower the GDP by $330 billion. He then concludes:

We can now put the elements together to form a “five-year plan” from 2009 to 2013. The path of incremental government outlays over the five years in billions of dollars is +300, +300, 0, 0, 0, which adds up to +600. The path for GDP is +120, +180, +60, minus 330, minus 330, adding up to minus 300. GDP falls overall because the famous “balanced-budget multiplier”—the response of GDP when government spending and taxes rise together—is negative. This result accords with the familiar pattern whereby countries with larger public sectors tend to grow slower over the long term.

The projected effect on other parts of GDP (consumer expenditure, private investment, net exports) is minus 180, minus 120, +60, minus 330, minus 330, which adds up to minus 900. Thus, viewed over five years, the fiscal stimulus package is a way to get an extra $600 billion of public spending at the cost of $900 billion in private expenditure. This is a bad deal.

On the other hand, in our discussion on insurance we decided that we choose to purchase insurance even though we will more likely put more money into it than we will ever take away from it because a dollar today is worth much less to us than a dollar does when our house burns down. Could you say the same about the stimulus? Even if we accept all of Barro’s numbers couldn’t it be that because of the recession we are now in that a dollar is worth much more to us than it will in 2013? Isn’t that the whole idea of deficit spending, that we need the money we barrow today will be much more valuable than the money we pay back at a later date?

Inventing a Disease to Sell a Cure

In this article, Louis Menand challenges the idea of “curing” depression. The main theory behind the use of antidepressants is that depression is caused by a lack of serotonin in the brain and that, through medication, these imbalances can be corrected. But some would argue that depression is just a natural reaction to the world that we live in. Which is correct? “Between 1988, the year after Prozac was approved by the F.D.A., and 2000, adult use of antidepressants almost tripled. By 2005, one out of every ten Americans had a prescription for an antidepressant.” Has depression become a widespread epidemic the last few decades that only became contagious after the development of antidepressants? Or has pharmaceutical companies exchanged the mental stability of 10% of society for $9.6 billion in antidepressant prescriptions?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/business/economy/21view.html?sq=robert%20frank&st=cse&adxnnl=1&scp=2&adxnnlx=1266948109-/0Ahs6j1i4EtbMBJgvKaBA